Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.015247 0.017272 0.019470 0.022032 0.024939 0.028135 0.031918
2025-07-06 0.011502 0.014154 0.017279 0.021238 0.026125 0.031967 0.039495
2025-07-13 0.010072 0.013115 0.016911 0.021999 0.028656 0.037087 0.048608
2025-07-20 0.008992 0.012263 0.016535 0.022536 0.030770 0.041706 0.057391
2025-07-27 0.008221 0.011669 0.016357 0.023214 0.033022 0.046598 0.066912
2025-08-03 0.007344 0.010802 0.015674 0.023061 0.034025 0.049771 0.074242
2025-08-10 0.006660 0.010119 0.015153 0.023042 0.035154 0.053146 0.082095
2025-08-17 0.005984 0.009367 0.014440 0.022635 0.035615 0.055509 0.088561
2025-08-24 0.005567 0.008961 0.014198 0.022902 0.037102 0.059516 0.097904
2025-08-31 0.005109 0.008443 0.013724 0.022740 0.037861 0.062399 0.105642
2025-09-07 0.004847 0.008214 0.013683 0.023263 0.039763 0.067259 0.117066
2025-09-14 0.004375 0.007591 0.012937 0.022531 0.039467 0.068400 0.122171
2025-09-21 0.004027 0.007154 0.012477 0.022264 0.039979 0.071013 0.130211
2025-09-28 0.003633 0.006601 0.011772 0.021503 0.039546 0.071932 0.135281
2025-10-05 0.003516 0.006534 0.011913 0.022271 0.041945 0.078120 0.150674
2025-10-12 0.003375 0.006409 0.011934 0.022815 0.043963 0.083760 0.165527
2025-10-19 0.003264 0.006329 0.012030 0.023502 0.046303 0.090190 0.182500
2025-10-26 0.003054 0.006040 0.011707 0.023347 0.046978 0.093445 0.193391
2025-11-02 0.002879 0.005805 0.011466 0.023328 0.047914 0.097280 0.205797
2025-11-09 0.002674 0.005493 0.011049 0.022915 0.048006 0.099405 0.214786
2025-11-16 0.002559 0.005355 0.010968 0.023186 0.049537 0.104608 0.230837
2025-11-23 0.002409 0.005130 0.010692 0.023022 0.050125 0.107867 0.242908
2025-11-30 0.002337 0.005065 0.010739 0.023551 0.052257 0.114599 0.263364